"The differences are very great": how the offensive army Haftar on Tripoli can change the situation in Libya

In Libya, hostilities again intensified against the backdrop of a political crisis that has continued since 2011. The Libyan National Army (LNA), controlled by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftaru, launched an offensive against the capital Tripoli, which is under the control of the Government of National Accord (PNS) led by Faiz Saraj.

Huftar’s forces began a military operation on 4 April. At the moment, their advancement does not meet serious resistance from the enemy. According to media reports, the LNA seized the large settlements surrounding Tripoli and the international airport. Also, field marshal announced the creation of a no-fly zone over the capital of the country.

Operation LNA is being held on the eve of a nationwide conference on inter-Libyan dialogue, to be held on April 14-16 in the city of Ghadames in the north-west of Libya. In a conversation with RT, Kirill Semenov, head of the Center for Islamic Studies at the Institute of Innovative Development, said that the field marshal was trying to establish a “military government” in the country.

“As far as I know, following the conference, Haftar could get a portfolio of the Minister of Defense or another high position in the government and thus legitimize his position. However, such proposals did not suit him. In my opinion, the commander of the LNA is counting on more - the highest post in the state, ”suggested Semyonov.

• Field Marshal Khalif Haftar
• Reuters
• © Philippe Wojazer

In turn, Azhdar Kurtov, editor-in-chief of the journal Problems of National Strategy of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI), noted in an interview with RT that the attack on Tripoli testifies to Haftar’s readiness to take power into his own hands.

"Internal contradictions"

After the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya is in a state of permanent civil war. In recent years, clashes between various armed groups — PNS, LNA troops, tribal unions, and international terrorist groups — have not stopped.

Today in Libya reigns dual power. Most of the country's east and key oil fields are controlled by the army of Khaftar. Under the authority of the government of national consent nominally are a number of Western territories and Tripoli. However, several major armed clashes that occurred in 2018 indicate that the PNS cannot ensure security even in the capital.

According to Kurtov, the government in Tripoli is torn apart by internal contradictions.

“I would not talk about the incapacity of the PNS - it is forced to act in extremely difficult conditions. However, it is pointless to argue that the current official government has not demonstrated a willingness to defeat the most radical elements and unite the country, ”said the expert.

According to analysts, the government of Saraj is supported by Turkey and Qatar, and Egypt and the United Arab Emirates stand behind Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia opposes a military solution to the Libyan crisis and holds regular consultations with both parties to the conflict. Moscow places certain hopes on the upcoming negotiations in Ghadames.

In an interview with the Egyptian newspaper Al-Ahram, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the chaos prevailing in Libya is a direct consequence of the military intervention of NATO member countries. In February-June 2011, the armed forces of the United States, France, Britain, Spain, Canada, Italy, Belgium and other Western states launched massive strikes against Gadhafi’s army, which conducted military operations with disparate rebel forces.

The task of Moscow, according to Lavrov, is to assist the Libyans in overcoming their differences. In this regard, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation supports the UN "road map", the essence of which is to conduct general elections and constitutional reform.

On April 4, the governments of the United States, France, Britain, Italy and the United Arab Emirates expressed concern over the worsening situation in Libya and spoke in favor of ending the fighting. However, experts believe that the West and the countries of the Middle East do not have a unified approach to resolving the Libyan conflict.

• Libyan military in Tripoli
• Reuters
• © Hani Amara

“Disagreements between foreign powers over the situation in Libya are very great, including among those countries that participated in the intervention. In such conditions, the situation can not be straightened. The original source of chaos in Libya is the policy of the West, but now neither the United States nor Europe can imagine how the situation can be changed, which forces should be supported, and which political initiatives should be promoted, ”stated Kurtov.

Semyonov, in turn, believes that Russia has taken the “best position”, maintaining a dialogue with the official government and Hoftar. In his opinion, the current situation in Libya may develop in an unpredictable scenario.

Storm can be delayed

Representatives of the LNA claim that they will be able to capture Tripoli in a short time and with minimal losses. The backbone of Haftar’s troops are former personnel of the Gaddafi army. He is also supported by a part of Islamist formations and mercenary units.

The experts interviewed by RT believe that the LNS is noticeably superior in combat power to the forces loyal to the PNS. However, they are confident that the assault on Tripoli could be delayed, since the troops of Khaftar could not agree with all the factions in the west of the country. Some of them are in the rear of the advancing forces.

“It is difficult to say whether Haftar will succeed in taking Tripoli. I would refrain from making specific predictions. Part of the factions in the west of Libya decided to resist Haftar and far from all went over to his side, as he had expected. At the same time, some combat-ready groups that nominally support the PNS have taken a wait-and-see attitude, ”said Semyonov.

• LNA troops in Tripoli
• AFP
• © Mahmud TURKIA

Sergey Balmasov, an expert at the Middle East Institute, said in a conversation with RT that before the attack on Tripoli, Haftar needed to master a powerful resistance stronghold in the city of Misurata, located 200 km east of the capital. In his opinion, the LNA risks getting hit in the flank.

“Haftar is unlikely to make a blitzkrieg. To achieve this triumph in Libya is impossible without a treaty with the tribal unions. In this field Haftar is not very successful. For example, he allowed himself a number of hasty remarks about the Berbers. It is not known how the Libyan Islamists and such countries as Algeria, France and Italy will behave, ”said Balmasov.

At the same time, the expert noted that Haftar conducts a fairly competent foreign policy, establishing relations with the majority of interested foreign countries, including the Russian Federation. Also, according to Balmasov, a part of Libyan society looks at the field marshal with hope, tired of the chaos of the civil war.

Kurt holds a similar point of view. Orientalist believes that the figure of field marshal causes sympathy among a significant part of the population. However, to come to power, Haftar will have to break the resistance of many influential groups or come to an agreement with them.

“Even in the case of his military-political triumph, the crisis in the country will not end. It will be a very long way. It is impossible to predict anything, because there are persistent rumors about the poor health of the field marshal. If Haftar cannot control the country, then the LNA can disintegrate - and the civil war will begin anew, ”Kurt said.